Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

现代物流管理的可持续发展

物流业作为第三利润已经成为新兴重要产业，加快发展的同时必须注意经济效益和环境效益的统一，把发展绿色物流作为推进可持续发展的一个方面加以落实。因此，有必要对现代物流在可持续发展背景下做系统深入地研究。     

Impacts of motor vehicle operation on water quality in the US – Cleanup costs and policies

This paper investigates the costs of controlling some of the environmental impacts of motor vehicle transportation on groundwater and on surface waters. We estimate that annualized costs of cleaning-up leaking underground storage tanks range from $0.8 billion to $2.1 billion per year over 10 years. Annualized costs of controlling highway runoff from principal arterials in the US are much larger: they range from $2.9 billion to $15.6 billion per year over 20 years (1.6–8.3% of annualized highway transportation expenditures). Some causes of non-point source pollution were unintentionally created by regulations or could be addressed by simple design changes of motor vehicles. A review of applicable measures suggests that effective policies should combine economic incentives, information campaigns, and enforcement, coupled with preventive environmental measures. In general, preventing water pollution from motor vehicles would be much cheaper than cleaning it up.     

基于马尔可夫链的极值波高预测

本文研究了由日最大波高系列估算设计极值波高时，相邻日最大波高间的相关性对极值预测的影响，从日最大波高系列遵从马尔可夫链的假定出发，考虑到国内外经常采用对数一正态分布的韦布尔分布拟合波高长期分布的现实，本文用解析法求解了对数一正态分布情况下的极值预测。同时，对解析法难以求解的非正态随机变量情况（如韦布尔分布），用计算机随机模拟方法求解其极值预测，用上述两种方法对北大西洋和北海有关日最大波高系列的预测     

长江经济带沿江铁路通道规划建设必要性分析

长江经济带发展正式上升为国家战略。沿江铁路通道横跨我国长江经济带,是我国长江经济带发展战略的支撑性通道。以沿江通道区位特征、产业布局、经济特征为依据,通过分析沿江铁路通道的发展现状、存在问题,通道内不同时期铁路运输需求,以及对拟建项目的功能定位进行分析,从而提出沿江铁路通道规划建设的必要性。     

高速铁路无砟轨道综合技术经济分析

无砟轨道结构以其自身高平顺性、高可靠性、高稳定性等特性得到国外高速铁路发达国家的广泛认同。我国高速铁路在"引进、消化、吸收、再创新"的思想指导下,先后研发出CRTSⅠ、CRTSⅡ、CRTSⅢ型板式及CRTSⅠ型双块式等无砟轨道结构型式,并在国内多条高速铁路及客运专线上得到成功应用。但是,也应该看到,我国无砟轨道结构设计还处于不断优化完善阶段,对各种轨道结构的技术特点、适用性以及工程造价等尚没有统一的认识。从设计、施工、养护维修的角度对我国已应用的主要型式的无砟轨道进行技术特点分析和对比研究,并对不同型式无砟轨道的造价进行分析。     

GM(1,1)-Logistic路基沉降组合预测模型研究与应用

路基沉降预测是指导正确施工及运营期路基养护的一个重要因素.GM(1,1)模型及Logistic模型被广泛应用于路基最终沉降量的预测.基于组合预测的基本理论,结合GM(1,1)模型及Logistic模型的特点,提出了GM(1,1)-Logistic组合路基沉降预测模型,采用线性组合预测方法,以过去一段时间内组合预测误差平方和最小为原则来求2个预测模型的加权系数.结合工程实际监测数据的计算结果和分析表明,GM(1,1)-Logistic组合预测模型在预测精度上比单个模型具有更好的适用性.     

科学发展模式对经济效益影响的几点建议

落实科学发展观,采用科学发展模式,关键在于结合实际、统筹兼顾、协调发展,将信心和动力通过实际工作转化为经济效益。此文以施工管理和节约能耗为例,阐述大型工程建设应优化资源配置,按施工组织设计配备各类人员,各类材料要按规领取,节约使用和有序囤放。工程管理中应根据建设规模合理选定现场检测点,以节约路途时间和能耗,增加经济效益。     

贵阳枢纽大对门双线隧道超前地质预报技术

针对贵阳枢纽白云至龙里北铁路控制性工程大对门双线隧道复杂的岩溶、水文地质等条件,介绍超前地质预报的综合应用,总结应用效果和存在的问题。超前地质预报实践表明,采用TSP、地质雷达、红外探水、HSP声波反射法等综合超前预报手段,有的放矢,结合地质资料和隧道开挖不断揭露的地质条件综合分析,可以获得较好的预报结果,为隧道中不良地质情况施工提供正确指导。     

超大面积深厚软土桩网复合地基沉降变形观测技术

结合厦深铁路(广东段)4标潮汕站场超大面积深厚软土桩网复合地基沉降控制施工及沉降变形观测施工实践,详细介绍了沉降变形观测技术,包括观测断面的选取及布置原则、测试内容、测试元器件的布设、沉降预测方法及预测计算、地基固结度的计算及分析,通过预测数据和实测数据的对比,证明了潮汕站场超大面积深厚软土桩网复合地基沉降控制施工方案的正确性,对指导同类型施工有借鉴作用。